The value of forecasting in an uncertain world

Wednesday 17 May 17 2:45pm
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Forecasting is a valuable part of the monetary policy process, helping the Bank plan for the future, communicate its current understanding and intentions, and react to unexpected events, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor and Head of Economics Dr John McDermott said today.

During a speech to the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) in Christchurch, Dr McDermott outlined the reasons why the Bank regularly produces and publishes forecasts and Official Cash Rate (OCR) projections.

“Forecasting is not supposed to be prophecy; rather, it is about being precise about our thinking. It requires the Bank to be rigorous, unbiased, and open to new ideas in formulating and implementing monetary policy. Being numerically precise about our view of the future allows us to test ideas, which in turn accelerates our ability to learn and understand what is going on,” said Dr McDermott. More>

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